Price fluctuations
In Hungarian

 

 

 

week

Lectures (Thu 14:15)

Practices (Thu, 16:00)

1 Repetition of probability theory: limit theorems, stable distributions, domain of attraction (10 Febr.) R introduction, simulations, tools for goodness of fit (10 Febr)
R code    Shiny applet
2 Multivariate stable distributions. Extreme-value distributions, max-domains of attraction (17 Febr.)  Calculations with characteristic functions, stable distributions (17 Febr)
R code
3 Parameter estimation, confidence intervals in extreme-value  models, the effect of serial dependence (24 Febr.) Bivariate stable, extreme-value distributions (24 Febr)
R code
4 Multivariate extreme-value distributions , Peaks over threshold models  in one dimension (3 March) Extreme-value distributions (contd), (3 March)
R code
5 Multivariate POT models, point processes, Hill estimator  (10 March) Bivariate extreme value models (10 March)  
 Project to be solved
R code Bivariate extreme-value models (theory) 
6 Bootstrap  (17 March) Peaks over threshold models  (17 March)
R code Theory
7 Elliptic distributions,copulas with applications (24 March)  Bootstrap (24 March)
R code
8 Goodness of fit for copulas, problems in higher dimensions (31 March) Copulas (31 March)
R code  Theory
9 Random matrices, portfolio optimisation and instability, risk measures (7 Apr) Copulas (contd), Vine copulas (7 Apr)
R code
SPRING Break SPRING Break
11 Portfolio optimisation and instability, ARCH-GARCH models. (21 Apr) Portfolio optimisation and instability:  R code (21 Apr)
12 The crisis in 2007-2009 and its effect, stress testing, machine learning (28 Apr) Random matrices,  sample exam (28 Apr) R code
PÁZMÁNY day PÁZMÁNY day
14 Legislational questions. Guest professor: Miklós Véber (Morgan Stanley, 12 May) written exam (12 May)